While much of the global bottled water industry surges ahead with double-digit growth rates, Africa’s market for unsweetened, non-flavoured water faces a more tempered reality, projected to expand at just 1.3% annually through 2035, according to a new Index Box analysis.
The continent’s non-mineral water sector contracted to 13 billion litres in 2024, a 2.4% decline from the previous year, valued at $14.1 billion. Despite this recent downturn, analysts forecast the market will reach 15 billion litres by 2035, with value climbing to $19.8 billion at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.2%.
Nigeria, Ethiopia Lead Consumption Despite Infrastructure Gaps
Three countries dominate Africa’s plain water landscape: Nigeria (1.9 billion litres), Ethiopia (1.2 billion litres), and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (1.1 billion litres), collectively accounting for 32% of total consumption. Nigeria has demonstrated particularly robust growth, with consumption increasing at 7.4% annually since 2013.
However, the story shifts when examining per capita consumption. Uganda leads at 12 litres per person annually, followed closely by Tanzania and the DRC at 11-12 litres each. These figures remain remarkably low compared to global consumption patterns, reflecting broader water access challenges across the continent.
“The modest growth rate underscores a fundamental paradox in African markets,” said industry analysts. With approximately 2.2 billion people globally lacking access to safe drinking water, Africa represents both enormous potential and significant infrastructure barriers.
Lesotho’s Export Dominance Raises Questions
In a striking market anomaly, tiny Lesotho controls 95% of Africa’s plain water exports, shipping 72 million litres worth $93 million in 2024. South Africa trails far behind at just 3.1 million litres, representing a mere 1.7% of export value.
This concentration reflects limited intra-African trade in the sector, with Kenya, Somalia, and Libya emerging as the primary importers. Import prices fell sharply by 21.6% to $516 per thousand litres in 2024, though South Africa paid premium rates at $583 per thousand litres.
Price Pressures and Market Headwinds
The African market faces distinct challenges compared to more dynamic regions. While the Middle East and Africa bottled water sector overall is projected to grow at 8.7% CAGR through 2033, Africa’s plain water segment lags significantly behind.
Export prices tumbled 12.3% to $1.30 per litre in 2024, down from a 2015 peak of $3.30 per litre. This pricing pressure reflects oversupply in certain markets and the commodity nature of unflavoured water in a continent where premium and functional waters are gaining traction among urban consumers.
Divergent Regional Trends
South Africa’s market tells a different story from the continental picture. The country’s bottled water sector is forecast to grow at 2.8% CAGR through 2029, driven by water scarcity concerns and contamination worries that have pushed urban consumers toward bottled alternatives.
Sudan emerged as the fastest-growing market among major consumers, with an 11.1% CAGR in market value, while Somalia’s imports surged at 45% annually between 2013 and 2024—likely reflecting ongoing humanitarian crises and infrastructure collapse.
The Functional Water Challenge
Africa’s plain water market faces increasing competition from value-added alternatives. The functional water segment, featuring enhanced products with vitamins, electrolytes, and minerals, is projected to expand at 14.3% CAGR through 2033, vastly outpacing basic water.
This shift mirrors global trends where health-conscious consumers, particularly in urban areas, gravitate toward premium products. Nigeria’s growing middle class and Ethiopia’s urbanization suggest that even in Africa’s largest plain water markets, premiumization could erode the commodity segment’s share.
Infrastructure and Sustainability Concerns
The sector’s tepid growth partly reflects systemic challenges. With many African nations still struggling to provide reliable municipal water, bottled water serves as a critical safety net rather than a lifestyle choice. Yet this necessity-driven demand hasn’t translated into explosive growth, constrained by purchasing power and distribution infrastructure.
Environmental concerns also loom. As plastic waste awareness grows globally, African markets face pressure to adopt sustainable packaging, a costly transition for producers operating on thin margins in the plain water segment.
Outlook: Steady but Unspectacular
The 1.3% volume growth forecast through 2035 represents stability rather than dynamism. While Africa’s population boom and urbanization should theoretically drive water demand, the plain water segment appears caught between infrastructure limitations, poverty constraints, and premiumization trends.
For investors and producers, the message is mixed: Africa’s water market offers long-term potential rooted in genuine need, but the path to profitability lies increasingly in value-added products rather than basic commodity water. The continent’s 32% growth in market value since 2016 suggests that when Africans can afford to choose, they’re willing to pay for quality, a trend that may ultimately reshape the entire sector.
