As government targets doubling milk output by 2030, evaporated milk sector adapts with downsized packaging and healthier variants
By Victor Owencho
Nigeria’s evaporated milk market is quietly carving out a growth path even as the country wages a broader battle against its $1.5 billion annual dairy import bill, with industry forecasts projecting the segment will expand from $29.3 million in 2024 to $37.2 million by 2033.
The projected 2.7% annual growth rate, while modest, reflects a sector that’s proving resilient through strategic adaptation rather than volume surges—a critical development as Nigeria intensifies efforts to cut its reliance on imported dairy products that currently account for 60% of national consumption.
The Smaller-Pack Revolution
“Evaporated milk continues to hold its ground in Nigerian kitchens primarily because of its versatility and shelf stability.”
At the heart of the market’s staying power is a fundamental shift in how Nigerians buy their milk. Squeezed by persistent inflation, consumers are increasingly gravitating toward single-use and smaller pack sizes that offer better expense management, according to a recent 6Wresearch industry analysis.
This downsizing trend has become a lifeline for manufacturers navigating an economy where price sensitivity dictates purchasing decisions. Brands like Peak, Three Crowns, Dano, Cowbell, and Hollandia have responded by expanding their portfolio of affordable, portion-controlled options—ensuring evaporated milk remains accessible despite economic headwinds.
“Evaporated milk continues to hold its ground in Nigerian kitchens primarily because of its versatility and shelf stability,” the report noted. The product’s dual role as both a beverage companion for tea and coffee and a cooking ingredient has cemented its position as a pantry staple, particularly in households without consistent access to fresh milk.
Local Production Push Reshapes Competitive Landscape
The evaporated milk market’s evolution is unfolding against a dramatic backdrop of government initiatives aimed at transforming Nigeria’s dairy sector. In November 2025, stakeholders convened in Abuja to validate the Implementation Framework of the National Dairy Policy—a move designed to translate policy into action and reduce import dependence.
Nigeria currently produces approximately 700,000 tonnes of milk annually despite owning over 20.9 million cattle, falling far short of the estimated 1.6 million to 2.2 million tonnes needed to meet domestic demand. The government’s National Livestock Growth Acceleration Strategy aims to double production to 1.4 million tonnes by 2030 through genetic improvement, better animal nutrition, and strengthened value chains.
Recent corporate investments signal growing confidence in local sourcing. In 2024, Fan Milk PLC partnered with Obasanjo Farms to develop a 2,500-hectare dairy farm in Oyo State, while Arla Foods Nigeria launched new evaporated milk products under its Dano brand—Dano Full Cream and Dano Cool Cow—specifically positioned to meet rising demand for healthier dairy options.
The Advancing Local Dairy Development in Nigeria (ALDDN) Programme, which concluded in 2024 after five years of operation, successfully boosted local milk production to over 190,000 litres per day by working with 60,000 dairy farmers across key producing states.
Health-Conscious Reformulation
Manufacturers are also recalibrating product formulations to align with wellness trends. Industry players are introducing lower-sugar, reduced-fat, and skimmed evaporated milk variants—answering consumer calls for healthier alternatives without sacrificing the familiar taste and texture that have made evaporated milk a household staple.
This health-driven innovation extends beyond reformulation to packaging. Companies are experimenting with new formats designed for on-the-go consumption and experimenting with flavour variations to broaden appeal among younger, more adventurous consumers.
The emergence of a “buy local” sentiment is also reshaping purchasing decisions. A growing segment of consumers now actively seeks locally sourced and produced evaporated milk, driven by a desire to support domestic industries, ensure product freshness, and contribute to reducing Nigeria’s import bill.
Headwinds Persist Despite Adaptive Strategies
Yet structural challenges remain formidable. Inflation continues to suppress constant-value growth, while intense competition from both domestic and international players squeezes profit margins. Distribution networks struggle to reach remote and rural areas efficiently, and manufacturers grapple with fluctuating raw milk prices and supply chain disruptions.
Quality and safety standards add another layer of complexity, requiring consistent investment in processing infrastructure and quality control systems—particularly critical as Nigeria aims to boost local milk collection from pastoral systems that currently operate with limited infrastructure.
Import data from 2024 shows Nigeria spent approximately $267 million on dairy products, with most entering as powdered milk and cream later reconstituted into various dairy products. The market’s price sensitivity has led importers to favour fat-filled milk powder blended with vegetable fats due to its more favourable retail pricing.
Investment Outlook: Population Growth Meets Policy Support
“Success will hinge less on dramatic volume expansion and more on how effectively brands innovate in formulation and packaging, price strategically for affordability, and align with evolving consumer lifestyles.”
Despite these obstacles, analysts identify compelling investment opportunities across the dairy value chain. Nigeria’s population, currently exceeding 227 million and projected to reach over 401 million by 2050, represents an expanding addressable market for affordable dairy products.
Government policy continues to shape the operating environment through quality standards, import duties, and regulatory oversight designed to protect consumers while supporting local production. Tax reliefs and subsidies are being deployed to encourage domestic manufacturing and reduce import dependence as part of broader food security objectives.
The evaporated milk market’s online distribution channel is expected to witness notable growth at 5.8% through the forecast period, reflecting the growing preference for online grocery shopping—a trend accelerated by urbanization and digital commerce adoption.
For the evaporated milk segment specifically, success will hinge less on dramatic volume expansion and more on how effectively brands innovate in formulation and packaging, price strategically for affordability, and align with evolving consumer lifestyles in an economy marked by persistent inflation and changing dietary preferences.
As Nigeria’s dairy transformation unfolds through public-private partnerships, backward integration schemes, and policy interventions, the evaporated milk market stands to benefit from both improved local milk supply and continued consumer loyalty to a product that has proven its staying power in Nigerian kitchens for generations.
Market data sourced from 6Wresearch industry analysis; dairy sector development information from government statements and industry reports.
Original report: Nigeria’s evaporated milk market eyes $37m horizon as shoppers embrace smaller packs – BusinessDay NG
